Linear and nonlinear barotropic vorticity model frameworks are constructed to understand the formation of the monsoon trough in boreal summer over the western North Pacific. The governing equation is written with respect to specified zonal background flows, and a wave perturbation is prescribed in the eastern boundary. Whereas a uniform background mean flow leads no scale contraction, a confluent background zonal flow causes the contraction of zonal wavelength. Under linear dynamics, the wave contraction leads to the development of smaller scale vorticity perturbations. As a result, there is no upscale cascade. Under nonlinear dynamics, cyclonic (anticyclonic) wave disturbances shift northward (southward) away from the central latitude due to the vorticity segregation process. The merging of small-scale cyclonic and anticyclonic perturbations finally leads to the generation of a pair of large-scale cyclonic and anti-cyclonic vorticity gyres, straddling across the central latitude. The large-scale cyclonic circulation due to nonlinear upscale cascade can be further strengthened through a positive convection-circulation feedback.
Abrupt climate change has an important impact on sustainable economic and social development, as well as ecosystem. However, it is very difficult to predict abrupt climate changes because the climate system is a complex and nonlinear system. In the present paper, the nonlinear local Lyapunov exponent (NLLE) is proposed as a new early warning signal for an abrupt climate change. The performance of NLLE as an early warning signal is first verified by those simulated abrupt changes based on four folding models. That is, NLLE in all experiments showed an almost monotonous increasing trend as a dynamic system approached its tipping point. For a well-studied abrupt climate change in North Pacific in 1976/1977, it is also found that NLLE shows an almost monotonous increasing trend since 1970 which give up to 6 years warning before the abrupt climate change. The limit of the predictability for a nonlinear dynamic system can be quantitatively estimated by NLLE, and lager NLLE of the system means less predictability. Therefore, the decreasing predictability may be an effective precursor indicator for abrupt climate change.
A region of low sea surface temperature (SST) extends southward in the central part of southern South China Sea during boreal winter, which is called the South China Sea cold tongue (SCS CT). The present study investigates the factors of interannual variation of SST in the SCS CT region and explores the individual and combined impacts of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) on the SCS CT intensity. During years with ENSO alone or with co-existing ENSO and anomalous EAWM, shortwave radiation and ocean horizontal advection play major roles in the interannual variation of the SCS CT intensity. Ocean advection contributes largely to the SST change in the region southeast of Vietnam. In strong CT years with anomalous EAWM alone, surface wind-related latent heat flux has a major role and shortwave radiation is secondary to the EAWM-induced change of the SCS CT intensity, whereas the role of ocean horizontal advection is relatively small. The above differences in the roles of ocean advection and latent heat flux are associated with the distribution of low level wind anomalies. In anomalous CT years with ENSO, low level anomalous cyclone/anticyclone-related wind speed change leads to latent heat flux anomalies with effects opposite to shortwave radiation. In strong CT years with anomalous EAWM alone, surface wind-related latent heat flux anomalies are large as anomalous winds are aligned with climatological winds.
Climate Dynamics - The reversed impacts of the Arctic oscillation (AO) on precipitation over the South China Sea and its surrounding areas (SCSA) in October and November during 1979–2014 are... 相似文献
Climate Dynamics - Energetic feedbacks play important roles during the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Here we conduct a thorough analysis of the radiative and non-radiative vertical... 相似文献
The influences of strong El Niño events (1997/98 and 2015/16) on summertime near-surface ozone (O3) concentrations over China are investigated using the GEOS-Chem model. The results show that near-surface O3 concentrations increased by a maximum of 6 ppb (parts per billion) during the summer of the developing phase of the 1997/98 El Niño in northeastern China, mainly due to the increased chemical production related to the hot and dry conditions. Besides, the O3 concentration increased by 3 ppb during the developing summer of both the 1997/98 and 2015/16 El Niño in southern China. It was linked to the weakened prevailing monsoon winds, which led to the accumulation of O3 in southern China. In contrast, in the summer of the decaying phase of the two El Niño events, O3 concentrations decreased over many regions of China when the El Niño reversed to the cooling phase. This highlights that El Niño plays an important role in modulating near-surface O3 concentrations over China.摘要利用全球大气化学三维模式 (GEOS-Chem) 模拟研究两次强厄尔尼诺事件 (1997/98和2015/16) 对中国夏季近地面臭氧 (O3) 浓度的影响. 结果表明1997/98年厄尔尼诺事件发展期夏季中国东北区域O3浓度升高, 最大值超过6ppb, 这主要归因于高温晴朗低湿等气象因素导致O3化学生成升高. 此外, 两次厄尔尼诺事件发展期夏季O3浓度在中国南部均增加了3ppb, 这与盛行季风减弱导致中国南方O3局地积累有关. 相反, 在两次强厄尔尼诺衰减期夏季, 中国大部分地区O3浓度下降伴随着海温模态转变为拉尼娜事件. 这表明厄尔尼诺在调节中国近地面O3浓度中发挥着重要作用. 相似文献
Reference materials are key for assessing inter-laboratory variability and measurement quality, and for placing analytical uncertainty bounds on sample analyses. Here, we investigate four years of data resulting from repeated processing of the CRONUS-N reference material for cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al analyses. At University of Vermont, we prepared a CRONUS-N aliquot with most of our sample batches from 2013 to 2017; these reference material samples were then distributed to four different accelerator mass spectrometry facilities, yielding 73 10Be analyses and 58 26Al analyses. We determine CRONUS-N 10Be concentrations of (2.26 ± 0.14) x 105 atoms g−1 (n = 73, mean, 1 SD) and 26Al concentrations of (1.00 ± 0.08) x 106 atoms g−1 (n = 58, mean, 1 SD). We find a reproducibility of 6.3% for 10Be and 7.7% for 26Al (relative standard deviations). We also document highly variable 27Al and Mg concentrations and a 10Be dispersion twice as large as the mean AMS analytic uncertainty. Analyses of the CRONUS-N material with and without density separation demonstrate that non-quartz minerals are present in the material and have a large impact on measured concentrations of 27Al, 10Be, and impurities; these non-quartz minerals represent only a very small portion of the total mass (0.6–0.8%) but have a disproportionally large effect on the resulting data. Our results highlight the importance of completely removing all non-quartz mineral phases from samples prior to Be/Al extraction for the determination of in situ cosmogenic 10Be and 26Al concentrations. 相似文献
Radiocarbon dating is the most widely applied and reliable dating technique for providing chronological control during Marine Isotope Stage 3 (MIS3; ∼60–27 cal kyr BP). Past variations in the atmospheric concentration of radiocarbon mean a calibration curve is required. IntCal20 and SHCal20 calibration curves covering MIS3 are presently largely based on non-atmospheric records which, in combination with larger radiocarbon (14C) dating uncertainties, results in significant smoothing and reduced resolution in calibration curve structure. Floating tree ring radiocarbon chronologies that are wiggle-matched to other palaeo records (particularly to Hulu Cave speleothems) have the potential to provide detailed structure to the MIS3 portion of extant calibration curves. New Zealand subfossil kauri (Agathis australis) trees are long-lived and are useful for constructing temporally-floating MIS3 atmospheric radiocarbon datasets. This paper presents extant and emerging data from several important Northland subfossil kauri locations (Omaha, Babylon Coast, Bream Bay, Kai Iwi Lakes, Mangawhai). We show the span of seven floating MIS3 kauri sequences (individual trees and chronologies) from which sequential radiocarbon series covering a total of 7556 years is now in development (representing 23% of the period 60–27 cal kyr BP). We also report radiocarbon dates for an additional 34 ancient kauri from MIS3 that can provide additional coverage. After these floating subfossil wood sequences have been produced, close to 40% of MIS3 (12,420 years) will be covered by contiguous subfossil kauri radiocarbon measurements. Based on our findings, we discuss the prospects and limitations for obtaining a highly resolved and precise atmospheric radiocarbon calibration curve comprehensively covering MIS3 using subfossil kauri. 相似文献
In optical dating, especially single-grain dating, various patterns of distributions in equivalent dose (De) are usually observed and analysed using different statistical models. None of these methods, however, is designed to deal with outliers that do not form part of the population of grains associated with the event of interest (the ‘target population’), despite outliers being commonly present in single-grain De distributions. In this paper, we present a Bayesian method for detecting De outliers and making allowance for them when estimating the De value of the target population. We test this so-called Bayesian outlier model (BOM) using data sets obtained for individual grains of quartz from sediments deposited in a variety of settings, and in simulations. We find that the BOM is suitable for single-grain De distributions containing outliers that, for a variety of reasons, do not form part of the target population. For example, De outliers may be associated with grains that have undesirable luminescence properties (e.g., thermal instability, high rates of anomalous fading) or with contaminant grains incorporated into a sample when collected in the field or prepared in the laboratory. Grains that have much larger or smaller De values than the target population, due to factors such as insufficient bleaching, beta-dose heterogeneity or post-depositional disturbance, may also be identified as outliers using the BOM, enabling these values to be weighted appropriately for final De and age determination. 相似文献
